Wednesday, May 7, 2008

The State of the Primary

In two words, it's over. And when you look at what has been said by pundits and experts over the last two months, it's really not very surprising. With a few exceptions, all of the contests that have taken place since Wisconsin and Hawaii have come down just like the experts have said they would (and, coincidentally, the Obama campaign). Following election night here in the Badger state, I said that to get back in the race HRC needed to win, and win big, in places like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. While she did pull out victories in each of these states(well, a pseudo-victory in Texas), her margins have not been great enough. With the exception of Pennsylvania, a state that has a Democratic Party structure conducive to HRC, she has not made up any substantial ground on the lead that Obama has built. Even on primary night in Ohio and Texas, the delegate count the following morning stood with virtually the same distance between HRC and Obama.

This pattern has got to be troubling for her campaign, and as Barack inches closer and closer to reaching the magic number of 2,025 delegates, HRC's margin for error grows razor thin. While the prognostications in March have had many of the primary contests accurately laid out, the results have now validated these predictions. Seeing the elections that have taken place over the past month, a month in which Obama has been held to standards Zeus could not meet, HRC's campaign is all but over. Granted, there is no official nominee yet and Obama has not yet gotten the required delegates, but the electoral math makes HRC's task nearly insurmountable at this point.

Oh, and could we please get back to discussing the issues!!

No comments: