First of all, sorry for having not updated the blog recently. I had an unfortunate incident with my laptop and had to order a new one, temporarily cutting me off from the world. I am also just getting over a nasty case of the flu which put me out of commission for the past 5 or so days.
Sitting on the couch yesterday drinking orange juice and sucking on cough drops, I got no shortage of election coverage to watch and piece together. After seeing the results come in, a few questions came to mind. Are HRC's negative attacks finally working (as disgusting and inaccurate as they may be)? What do the results say about the direction of the race? Does HRC really now had the momentum, as she claims? To some degree, there are no definitive answers to these questions, but I'll take a crack at finding them
Overall, I don't see last night as nearly as big of a victory as the HRC campaign proclaimed it. Granted, she won three out of the four primaries in play. However, when this all pans out, she will be behind in the delegate count by about the same as she was prior to March 4th. And in a race that is this close, this is what matters. Not to mention the fact that the Obama campaign predicted that they would lose the states they did (in addition to their strikingly accurate predictions throughout the rest of the campaign). Also, there is no denying that, as has been the case in dozens of other states, HRC had a huge early lead in the Texas and Ohio polls and was forced to hold on in the last few weeks as Obama closed the gaps. So what do the results say about the race? Quite simply, not much. HRC held serve in the states she was supposed to do well in, yet she still remains behind in the delegate count. After the WI primary I said that HRC had to win big on March 4th to have a chance. I stand by that prediction, and I don't believe she did what she had to in order to have a realistic chance to pull ahead of Obama.
One thing that last night did tell us is that HRC, for better or worse, will not go down without scratching and clawing for every vote. While I certainly admire her drive and persistance, at some point she has to stop being such a typical Clinton and see the picture beyond her own candidacy. What I mean by this is I worry that because her incredibly high personal ambtion (as well as Bill's), she won't see the damaging effect that going to the DNC Convention without a nominee could have. Her unwillingness to accept defeat (which is often a good characteristic) will cause the party to fracture, and the progressive movement as a whole will suffer in November.
My last point is that in the coming weeks I hope that the candidates don't continue to beat the hell out of each other. Now who knows, maybe HRC will remember how "honored" she is to be in this race and stop with the bipolar campaign strategy that came after the Texas debate. Or perhaps someone will explain to her pitbull Communications Director, Howard Wolfson, that although her viscious attack strategy may prove to be useful in the short run, eventually people will catch on and realize the mud she has been throwing has no substance to it. Either way, I really hope the weeks and months leading up to the DNC Convention don't provide more of what we've seen in the past few weeks.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Thursday, February 21, 2008
This John McCain thing...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/21/us/politics/21mccain.html
So I turn on the TV today to find out that the New York Times ran a 3000 word story today alleging that John McCain, the presumptive Republican Party nominee for President, was involved in a romantic affair with Vicki Iseman, a Washington lobbyist. While this is extremely troubling (and debilitating for his campaign) if true, at this point it seems best to withhold judgement given the lack of details that have surfaced thus far. The NYT article was run largely based on the claims of anonymous sources, and given the fact that there has been little corroboration yet, it is too early to tell the validity of the story. If the accusations prove to be true, I will be first in line to express my disappointment for Sen. McCain, but at this point there is much more information that needs to be gathered.
What is also concerning to me and what seems to be bringing this story down is the nature in which the article was run. Rather than focusing on the possible lobbyist ties (which are very valid campaign criticisms), the NYT led with the "juicy" topic, the sex. While this part of the story may or may not be true, the absence of a rock-solid case simply has emboldened the Rush Limbaugh's of the world. It has fired up neo-conservatives and given them all the more reason to attack the NYT. This is frustrating for those of us who see the NYT as one of the best news sources in the country. We cannot defend such media sources nearly as well when they have the appearance of tabloid paparazzo's chasing political elites around to capture the secrets of their private lives. My only hope, in this sense, is that they do have enough factual basis for this story, and their claims are true.
On the other, if the NYT is correct, it will be disheartening to see someone that has stood for reform and "maverick" politics brought down as simply another public official in the pockets of lobbyists. Sen. McCain, as is well known, has made a career on being a devoted public servant and beyond that, a good and decent person. He has given more to the country than most people would be willing to offer. Despite my disagreements with him on a number of policy issues, he has always been someone that I look at with respect as a person and a professional. For this reason, I hope the claims of the NYT turn out to be false.
In short, it is too early to make judgements on this story. We need to wait until all the facts come to light. Only then can the public accurately decifer how much this story should affect Sen. McCain's reputation.
So I turn on the TV today to find out that the New York Times ran a 3000 word story today alleging that John McCain, the presumptive Republican Party nominee for President, was involved in a romantic affair with Vicki Iseman, a Washington lobbyist. While this is extremely troubling (and debilitating for his campaign) if true, at this point it seems best to withhold judgement given the lack of details that have surfaced thus far. The NYT article was run largely based on the claims of anonymous sources, and given the fact that there has been little corroboration yet, it is too early to tell the validity of the story. If the accusations prove to be true, I will be first in line to express my disappointment for Sen. McCain, but at this point there is much more information that needs to be gathered.
What is also concerning to me and what seems to be bringing this story down is the nature in which the article was run. Rather than focusing on the possible lobbyist ties (which are very valid campaign criticisms), the NYT led with the "juicy" topic, the sex. While this part of the story may or may not be true, the absence of a rock-solid case simply has emboldened the Rush Limbaugh's of the world. It has fired up neo-conservatives and given them all the more reason to attack the NYT. This is frustrating for those of us who see the NYT as one of the best news sources in the country. We cannot defend such media sources nearly as well when they have the appearance of tabloid paparazzo's chasing political elites around to capture the secrets of their private lives. My only hope, in this sense, is that they do have enough factual basis for this story, and their claims are true.
On the other, if the NYT is correct, it will be disheartening to see someone that has stood for reform and "maverick" politics brought down as simply another public official in the pockets of lobbyists. Sen. McCain, as is well known, has made a career on being a devoted public servant and beyond that, a good and decent person. He has given more to the country than most people would be willing to offer. Despite my disagreements with him on a number of policy issues, he has always been someone that I look at with respect as a person and a professional. For this reason, I hope the claims of the NYT turn out to be false.
In short, it is too early to make judgements on this story. We need to wait until all the facts come to light. Only then can the public accurately decifer how much this story should affect Sen. McCain's reputation.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
WI Primary Night
As the numbers have come in tonight, it's become very clear that it's been a big night for Barack Obama. In addition to piling up a 17 point win in a race that Hillary Clinton was hoping to keep around 5 points, Barack continued to increase his support in almost every measureable demographic. Most significantly, he continues his streak of primary wins going into March 4th. That means the next two weeks will bring only more talk of his momentum and HRC's struggles.
Tonight's results also put Hillary into a tough position. She not only has to run the table in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, she has to do it in a BIG way. At this point (and I'll be the first to admit that there's still a lot of time left), she simply can't pull it off. Let's assume she wins in Pennsylvania, largely due to the deep roots she has with the Democratic political machine. That leaves Ohio and Texas. Even if she can hold onto her lead in Ohio, she is currently running dead even in Texas. This simply won't cut it, especially given the fact that there has been a lot of talk tonight by pundits about how Ohio could very easily fall in line with Wisconsin's results given the similarities in the makeup of the voting populations. Even if she hold's off Barack's charge, she cannot simply win 51-49 or 53-47. She needs to win big! And by big I mean 20 points or so. This is the only way she'll be able to get the delegates needed to get back into the race, and I just don't see this happening.
So where does the HRC campaign go from here? Now that is a good question. She has tried to be positive. It hasn't worked. She's tried going negative. Voters haven't responded. So what's left? HRC staffers are claiming that their "comparative" strategy (read: negative attacks) was the only reason that their loss in Wisconsin wasn't 20 or 25 points. Although that's an interesting theory, it doesn't seem to hold much water. Going into election day, polls had predictions varying from Hillary leading by 5ish to Barack leading by 20. Seeing as the spread will end up being around 17ish, it doesn't make sense to claim that the attacks worked. Barack won, and he won big. There's no two ways around it. This means that the HRC campaign has some serious soul searching to do in order to come up with some strategy to pull of a string of decisive victories. Anything short of that on March 4th, and Barack Obama could emerge as the Democratic nominee.
Tonight's results also put Hillary into a tough position. She not only has to run the table in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, she has to do it in a BIG way. At this point (and I'll be the first to admit that there's still a lot of time left), she simply can't pull it off. Let's assume she wins in Pennsylvania, largely due to the deep roots she has with the Democratic political machine. That leaves Ohio and Texas. Even if she can hold onto her lead in Ohio, she is currently running dead even in Texas. This simply won't cut it, especially given the fact that there has been a lot of talk tonight by pundits about how Ohio could very easily fall in line with Wisconsin's results given the similarities in the makeup of the voting populations. Even if she hold's off Barack's charge, she cannot simply win 51-49 or 53-47. She needs to win big! And by big I mean 20 points or so. This is the only way she'll be able to get the delegates needed to get back into the race, and I just don't see this happening.
So where does the HRC campaign go from here? Now that is a good question. She has tried to be positive. It hasn't worked. She's tried going negative. Voters haven't responded. So what's left? HRC staffers are claiming that their "comparative" strategy (read: negative attacks) was the only reason that their loss in Wisconsin wasn't 20 or 25 points. Although that's an interesting theory, it doesn't seem to hold much water. Going into election day, polls had predictions varying from Hillary leading by 5ish to Barack leading by 20. Seeing as the spread will end up being around 17ish, it doesn't make sense to claim that the attacks worked. Barack won, and he won big. There's no two ways around it. This means that the HRC campaign has some serious soul searching to do in order to come up with some strategy to pull of a string of decisive victories. Anything short of that on March 4th, and Barack Obama could emerge as the Democratic nominee.
Go Vote!! (if you haven't already)
I stumbled on this quote from Thomas Jefferson and thought it was fitting for election day here in Wisconsin:
"The spirit of 1776 is not dead. It has only been slumbering. The body of the American people is substantially republican. But their virtuous feelings have been played on by some fact with more fiction; they have been the dupes of artful maneuvers, and made for a moment to be willing instruments in forging chains for themselves. But times and truth dissipated the delusion, and opened their eyes."
At the crucial point in American history at which we rest, believe that the republican spirit of this country isn't dead and that the future of our democracy lies in our collective hands. It is up to us, the people, to ensure that we put responsible people into power to watch over the rights we cherish. So with that in mind, whomever you support, make sure you get out and fulfill your civic duty by voting in the primary today.
"The spirit of 1776 is not dead. It has only been slumbering. The body of the American people is substantially republican. But their virtuous feelings have been played on by some fact with more fiction; they have been the dupes of artful maneuvers, and made for a moment to be willing instruments in forging chains for themselves. But times and truth dissipated the delusion, and opened their eyes."
At the crucial point in American history at which we rest, believe that the republican spirit of this country isn't dead and that the future of our democracy lies in our collective hands. It is up to us, the people, to ensure that we put responsible people into power to watch over the rights we cherish. So with that in mind, whomever you support, make sure you get out and fulfill your civic duty by voting in the primary today.
Monday, February 18, 2008
More Negative Attacks from HRC
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/02/obama-campaign.html
Does the Clinton campaign have any real substance to criticize Obama on or are we just going to see more of these meaningless attacks as long as she continues to falter? They are clearly trying to bring Barack down into the muck of her negative attacks. Unfortunately for HRC, people are smart enough to see through this nonsense to find the things that matter in this campaign, namely seeking ways to move forward as a country in order to solve our problems collectively.
Does the Clinton campaign have any real substance to criticize Obama on or are we just going to see more of these meaningless attacks as long as she continues to falter? They are clearly trying to bring Barack down into the muck of her negative attacks. Unfortunately for HRC, people are smart enough to see through this nonsense to find the things that matter in this campaign, namely seeking ways to move forward as a country in order to solve our problems collectively.
Amateur Hour at MJS
Apparently the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal couldn't find a better picture of Wisconsin's Lt. Governor from the Founders Day Gala than this one: http://xbeyondx.blogspot.com/2008/02/journal-sentinel-seems-not-to-like-lt.html Give me a break! This kind of a move from MJS is, at best, amateur and unprofessional.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Wisconsin Primary
With the Wisconsin Democratic Primary set to take place in two days, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have been spending a significant amount of time in the state. HRC, however, has shown how desperate her campaign is by going negative on, of all topics, her challenge to debate Barack for the 5329th time.
Here is her ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzGbj_ERlJ0&feature=related
And here is the ad parody that shows how ridiculous her claims are: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3QaUwLNN5g
As Obama continues to roll up victories going into March 4, it will be interesting to see how HRC continues to rely on dirty, old campaign politics to stop Obama's ever-growing momentum. It couldn't be more apparent that in order to turn the page on the current page in American political culture that has divided us into arguably the most polarized period since the Civil War, we need a candidate whose vision lifts us above the fray of the politics of fear; a candidate who inspires us to bring the US back to the level of greatness it has seen. That candidate is Barack Obama, and on Tuesday join the masses in saying "Yes we can!"
Here is her ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzGbj_ERlJ0&feature=related
And here is the ad parody that shows how ridiculous her claims are: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3QaUwLNN5g
As Obama continues to roll up victories going into March 4, it will be interesting to see how HRC continues to rely on dirty, old campaign politics to stop Obama's ever-growing momentum. It couldn't be more apparent that in order to turn the page on the current page in American political culture that has divided us into arguably the most polarized period since the Civil War, we need a candidate whose vision lifts us above the fray of the politics of fear; a candidate who inspires us to bring the US back to the level of greatness it has seen. That candidate is Barack Obama, and on Tuesday join the masses in saying "Yes we can!"
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